South Florida has a reputation as a leading indicator of housing market trouble, so the Cassandras are understandably watching the region closely these days. Not only was it a canary in the coal mine of the 2000s real estate boom and bust, but its rents and home prices are coming off a pandemic-era sizzle that has, once again, severely pressured affordability. If the US enters a recession and unemployment rises, South Florida looks as vulnerable as anywhere in the country. But short of that, there are also a few reasons for cautious optimism.

Let’s get the ominous stuff out of the way first.

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