Jeff Bezos warns families to watch spending on big-ticket items with looming recession

August 2024 · 3 minute read

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has a warning for consumers: "Take some risk off the table" with a recession likely coming.

Bezos made the comments during an interview with CNN.

“What I can tell you is the economy does not look great right now,” he said.

Bezos advised families and small business owners to “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”

“If you’re an individual, and you’re thinking about buying a new large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens,” Bezos said. “Same thing with a refrigerator, or a new car, whatever, just take some risk off the table.”

Other economic experts agree with Bezos’ assessment, and they say his words certainly carry weight.

“You don’t want to be sticking your neck out financially at a time of economic uncertainty,” said Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride. “And you’ve got one of the wealthiest people in the world in Jeff Bezos telling you that an economic downturn is highly likely. And the money you don’t spend today, you may need it in future months.”

The pullback in spending, if done by enough people, is exactly what it takes for a recession to happen, said University of Oklahoma economist Greg Burge.

“If everybody, or at least a large fraction of households, kind of do that all at once, then the recession is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Burge, the chair of the OU economics department.

“Because as everybody tightens up and hunkers down, well then what happens to aggerate spending? It craters,” Burge said.

Bezos is no longer CEO of Amazon, but he’s still the executive chair of the company’s board. McBride said Bezos has gravitas not only because of his success but also because of the consumer insights he’s gleaned from Amazon.

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Amazon is hiring thousands to help in its warehouses this holiday season while also implementing a hiring freeze and reportedly planning layoffs in other parts of the company.

Both McBride and Burge agree with Bezos’ outlook: a recession is likely coming.

But both men said a harsh recession isn’t a foregone conclusion.

“At the mere mention of the word ‘recession,’ a lot of consumers, their muscle memory kicks in, and your mind immediately goes back to 2008 or even 2020, when unemployment rapidly spiked above 14%,” McBride said. “That doesn’t necessarily have any bearing on what we would see in a recession next year. Those were very, 2008 and 2020, were very extreme scenarios. And while no recession is fun, the odds are that we would have something that pales in comparison to what had been experienced in the previous two recessions.”

Burge said the Fed is laser-focused on a soft landing while trying to bring down inflation. He said they might pull it off, but bad news in housing, jobs or other segments of the economy could make that more difficult.

And Burge said we could be in for a more serious problem that sticks with us for a couple of years instead of a months-long “hiccup” if we have to deal with stagflation, where lots of people lose their jobs while also paying higher prices for their everyday needs.

McBride said now is a great time to invest in stocks, though he acknowledged that’s tough for a lot of people.

He said most Americans are under-saved for emergencies, and inflation has further strained budgets.

McBride said families would be wise to put extra money towards:

“This is the time to batten down the hatches financially and better prepare yourself to weather whatever may lie ahead economically,” McBride said.

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